With PlayStation’s AAA Studios taking the year off, Nintendo seemingly ramping up for next year’s launch of the Switch 2, and Xbox… well, with all of that going on, it’s made the possibility of winning Game of the Year a wide-open race. Remember when It Takes Two won Game of the Year in 2021? Well, we’re here again. It’s 2024, the video game industry is lying to its customers about how bad things are, and anything, and I mean anything, can win Game of The Year. 

Okay, remember when I said anything can win Game of the Year? That was a lie. There’s still a formula to this stuff, and thankfully, I’m here to help explain it to you. Anyone new to the site may be unfamiliar with my formula for what makes a game, Game of the Year. The basic formula is “Horse/Fishing=Game of the Year.” If we’re using Geoff Keighley’s Game Awards as a reference, we can go all the way back to 2014 and look at every Game of the Year winner to prove that the formula works and when it doesn’t, it often represents a “down year” in the gaming industry.

• 2014 Dragon Age Inquisition: horse
• 2015 Witcher 3: horse
• 2016 Overwatch: No “horse/fishing=Down Year”
• 2017 Breath of the Wild: horse
• 2018 God of War: No “horse” but boat. Boat=mount, which, in the absence of “horse,” can equate to “horse.”
• 2019 Sekiro: No horse/fishing, but it was still a good year. 2019 is the anomaly to the rule because even though no “horse/fishing,” every Game nominated (Sekiro, Control, Death Stranding, Resident Evil 2, Super Smash Bros. Ultimate, The Outer Worlds) was an absolute banger. 
• 2020 Last of Us Part 2: horse
• 2021 It Takes Two: No horse/fishing=Down Year
• 2022 Elden Ring: horse
• 2023 Baldur’s Gate 3: No horse but boat. Boat=mount, which, in the absence of horse, can equate to horse.

Also, an often asked question about the evidence presented is, shouldn’t the formula be simplified to, “horse=game of the year?” To that, I say, don’t be ridiculous. I do not have a vote for Geoff Keighley’s Game of the Year. I have no say in what games get the award, but if I did, I could present my formula, resulting in the scientifically appropriate games winning the award. Breath of the Wild is a game that people claim to like, and that’s great, but there was a better option for 2017. Breath of the Wild only has “horse.” Persona 5, on the other hand, has “horse” in the form of Morgana when he turns into a car (no horse but car. Car=mount, which, in the absence of horse, can equate to “horse”), and it also has fishing. If a game offers both “horse” and “fishing,” the debate is over. “Horse” plus “Fishing” is superior to just “horse.”

Another excellent example of this would be in 2018 with God of War. While God of War is an incredible game, Red Dead Redemption 2 offers both “horse” and fishing. This is why 2020 is arguably the most remarkable year in gaming history. Every title, except one, offers “horse/fishing.”

• Last of Us Part 2: horse
• Animal Crossing New Horizons: Fishing
• Doom Eternal: No horse/fishing
• Final Fantasy 7 Remake: No horse but motorcycle. Motorcycle=mount, which, in the absence of horse, can equate to horse.
• Ghost of Tsushima: horse
• Hades: fishing

So, with all of that said, what does that mean for 2024? The year is only halfway over, and it would be silly to think a contender for the 2024 crown won’t be announced during the Summer Game Fest. Still, even if that doesn’t happen, the beginning of the year has been filled with some truly special titles, but do any of them meet the required specificities to avoid the dreaded “down year?” Yes. If you were stressed over the answer, 2024 has been a solid year for the scientifically proven game formula. And with only six games being allowed to be nominated for Game of the Year, I’ve gone through every Game that’s been released so far this year and found six possible nominees. 

If I’m being honest, I wouldn’t be shocked to see at least 3, likely 4, of these games not making the final list by the end of the year. The first Like a Dragon was such a great game, but even with Infinite Wealth getting such great reviews, I feel like it’s never brought up as much as other possible contenders. On top of that, the further away a game’s release is from the Game Awards, the more it tends to find itself on the outside looking in. While a January release was great timing for gamers, it could hurt the Game in the long run. With Persona 3 Reload, I think the explanation for this not making the final cut is simple. Atlus has another game from the Persona team coming out at the end of the year that isn’t a remake of a previously released game. The swap is easy to see happening. Another easy cut is Palworld. Don’t get me wrong, this game looks fun and makes me incredibly jealous of the Xbox community for having this available on Game Pass. However, I think voters will be too critical of the Game’s similarities to Pokemon to nominate it. And last, but certainly not least, is Animal Well. While history suggests there’s always a chance a great indie title can land on the list (Celeste and Stray), I worry that because there are so many great indie titles this year (Indika, Balatro, and Lorelei and the Laser Eyes), they might all cancel themselves out and we’ll see none of them represented in the big category. I also have to be honest; I feel like I’m turning my back on the scientific process just a little bit. None of these indie games, at least as far I’m aware of, feature “horse” or “fishing.” Meanwhile, Unicorn Overlord has “horse” in its title. Sadly, games like Unicorn Overlord are relegated to categories like “Best RPG.”

The Rest of 2024…

With much of 2024 yet to be officially announced, I’m certain there will be a few surprise titles competing for Game of the Year. However, with what we currently know, I think there are four titles that have a great opportunity to make their way onto the list.

• Assassin’s Creed Shadows: Expected “horse.”

AC Shadows should have a relatively easy time making it onto the nominee list. Switching between being a ninja and a samurai while traveling around feudal Japan is a simple recipe for a great time. Am I suggesting that AC Shadows will be the grilled cheese sandwich of gaming in 2024? I say yes.

• Metaphor: ReFantazio: Expected “horse” and “fishing.”

I said Persona 3 Reload would be replaced by another game made by the Persona team, and here we are. Putting Persona in a more fantasy-based setting with Kings and Queens, Metaphor appears to have everything RPG fans hope for from Atlus’s next big title. 

• Indiana Jones and The Great Circle: Maybe “horse.”

I know Xbox’s first crack at the Game of the Year category fell a little flat with Hellblade 2’s reviews being all over the place, but this is the Wolfenstein team making a game about Indiana Jones beating up Nazis. The studio was born for this moment. If this isn’t a Game of the Year contender, then Microsoft might actually be in trouble. The line, “Help me Indiana Jones. You’re my only hope,” has never been more relevant.

• Wild Card: Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree: “horse” confirmed.

The most controversial option. Can DLC be Game of the Year? What if it comes out two years after the original Game’s release? What if it’s as big as most other new releases? In a year where there were other big releases like God of War or Baldur’s Gate, I could see people taking a strong stance on the sanctity of Game of the Year, but in a year where Balatro, no offense, the Game looks great, is a Game of the Year contender, I say anything goes.

If there’s one thing the last few years have taught us, you should never argue against science. The formula that I have discussed today is not of my own design. I’m merely an adventurer who stumbled upon a mystery waiting to be uncovered. I’m like the Indiana Jones of the scientific wing of the gaming community. They didn’t yell at Copernicus for looking up and questioning what that big bright ball in the sky was, and I’m simply asking you to do the same. It’s not my fault “Horse/Fishing=Game of the Year.” Also, good luck, Shadow of the Erdtree; you’ll need it. You might have “horse” in your Game, but Final Fantasy Rebirth lets me put a hat on a “horse” and that’s pretty damn adorable.