As 2024’s Summer Game Fest came to a close, the consensus across the gaming industry was that Xbox had won the event. With titles like Fable, South of Midnight, Indiana Jones and The Great Circle, Avowed, and Gears of Wars: E Day all showing off the power of Xbox’s first-party lineup, the future for the game company has never looked brighter. What if I told you, though, that 6 years ago, there was an eerily similar event that left everyone feeling the exact same as they did this year? With game development taking more time than ever, what does it mean to “win” at one of these gaming events? More importantly, does winning an event like this lead to quality games? Because of how similar these two events are, we can look at the past to see a glimpse at a possible future.

The year is 2018, and everything sucks. Don’t worry, though, because E3 is here to make everyone’s Summer better. A handful of days where companies like Nintendo, Xbox, and PlayStation all come together to showcase what makes them great. What a world! While everyone prepared to show off their best-looking games, everyone’s favorite chef, Phil Spencer, was hidden deep within the halls of the Microsoft Theater, toiling away at the Xbox conference. It had to be perfect. This would be the beginning of Microsoft’s comeback. No longer would they be thought of as third-chair. In 2012, they sat at the top of Mount Olympus, and today, June 10, 2018, they would begin their return to greatness.

So what happened? How did we go from Xbox crushing their 2018 press conference to Phil Spencer saying in a 2023 interview with Kinda Funny that Xbox lost the console war? I remember all of us being excited over the games they showed at this event and, personally, wondering if I was going to buy an Xbox. 6 years later, that still hasn’t happened, and with more and more Xbox titles going multiplatform, it seems like that purchase may never happen. So what went wrong?

The press conference opens with Halo Infinite, and based on its name and the vast open environments the trailer shows, this looks to be the most impressive and expansive Halo yet. Halo Infinite wouldn’t launch for another three years, but its single-player campaign was met with great reviews. However, the multiplayer portion of the game quickly lost momentum as developer 343 Industries struggled to keep up with consistent updates expected for a modern-day multiplayer shooter. Even the fan-favorite mode Forge wouldn’t be added into the game until nearly a full year after release. Between a game that failed to meet the hype and an eventual TV show that most fans didn’t enjoy, the Halo franchise is in a tough spot. Insider reports even claim that the once-beloved franchise is no longer considered a flagship title for Xbox.

After the Halo reveal, Phil Spencer announces that today’s event will feature 50 games, 18 exclusives, and 15 world premieres. At this point, the crowd is ready to go to war for this man. PlayStation is next door. A literal console war rests upon this man’s lips. All he has to do is give the word. Thankfully, he doesn’t call for Shawn Layden’s head but instead shows off some more games. This leads us to our next big moment, Fallout 76. Out walks Todd Howard to show off Bethesda’s next big game in the Fallout franchise. Though many claim that developers have managed to turn things around with Fallout 76, the game’s launch was a disaster, with its Metacritic score currently sitting at 52. It’s also weird to think that Microsoft would purchase Bethesda just three years after this moment. And for those wondering, Bethesda did have their own press conference this year. To lighten the blow of a multiplayer-only Fallout game, they revealed Starfield, which wouldn’t be released for another 5 years, and Elder Scrolls 6, which isn’t expected to release until at least 2027. Absolute insanity!

Then there was the highly anticipated Crackdown 3 (Metacritic score of 60), Sea of Thieves (though a rough launch, this has become one of Xbox’s most successful titles), and Forza Horizon 4 (with a Metacritic score of 92, the Forza franchise has continued to be a critical and commercial darling for Xbox. Playground Games is currently developing Fable). After this exciting series of trailers, Phil Spencer returns to discuss the latest acquisitions from Xbox. At the time, many defended these purchases as Microsoft giving developers a safety net from the harsh realities of the video game industry. Let’s see what happened.

The Initiative: While not an acquisition, Xbox says, “The Initiative is a brand-new Microsoft game development studio headed by industry veteran Darrell Gallagher that is working to create groundbreaking new worlds, characters and game experiences.”

So what happened?

In 2021, The Initiative announced Perfect Dark as their first title, but just as quickly as hype started to grow, those in the know would see reports of internal conflicts leading to staff members leaving the studio. It wouldn’t be for another 3 years in 2024 when Xbox would reveal a new trailer for the highly anticipated game that revealed gameplay. 6 years since the initial announcement of The Initiative, there is still no release date for Perfect Dark. While I understand why Xbox wanted to announce a new Triple-A studio, because game development takes as long as it does, announcements like this end up feeling hollow. A great example of “could have been an E-mail.”

Playground Games: Playground Games is such a bright spot in Xbox’s catalog. No matter how dire things are, it always seems like they can depend on Playground Games to develop a great game. Similar to Spider-Man developer Insomniac for PlayStation, Xbox had been working with Playground for years, and it was a great move to officially bring them into the Xbox lineup. As mentioned earlier, they are currently working on the highly anticipated game Fable, which is currently slated for 2025.

Ninja Theory, Undead Labs, and Compulsion Games: While all three studios are incredibly talented, I do feel the need to group them together for one simple reason. They sadly all feel like studios that could be on the chopping block for Xbox. After the massive purchases of both Bethesda and Activision, Microsoft finally started noticing that Xbox was spending a lot of money while not making the desired amount. Don’t get it twisted. Xbox is doing very well, but Microsoft wants the number to be a certain size, and when the company struggled to hit its goal, not only did we see layoffs but entire studio closures.

Many worried for Ninja Theory that Hellblade 2 would be the final game for the studio. Thankfully, for now, that isn’t the case, but the fact that this was a concern says a lot about where Xbox currently stands with some of its studios. While State of Decay 3 and South of Midnight looked incredible at this year’s Summer Game Fest, it would be silly to ignore the fact that if these games don’t deliver at launch, it could spell the end for both studios.

Back to the event, though. After these announcements, the event returned to showing 3rd party games like Devil May Cry 5, The Division 2, and Dying Light 2. While these games are available on all platforms, they are admittedly big gets. Every single one of these games went on to be big hits for their respected studios. But what about Xbox? Do they have anything left in the tank? As the trailer for Just Cause 4 comes to a close, the screen goes black. The silence in the arena morphs into applause as the sound of a chainsaw echoes through the theater. It’s Gears of War!

Wait. It’s something called Gears Pop! A mobile game in the style of Funko toys set in the Gears of War universe. I had no idea this was a thing. Weird. Following this is something I also had no idea existed but is now wishlisted on my Steam account. Gears Tactics, a turn-based tactical game in the style of X-COM, set in the Gears of War universe. That sounds amazing! Why isn’t this a bigger deal? Why don’t they make these now? After some Googling, it appears that developer Splash Damage was purchased by the evil conglomerate Tencent. It was nice knowing you, Splash Damage. Also, it doesn’t sound like there were a lot of high expectations for Gears Tactics, considering their Steam page features an image from PC Gamer that says, “a shockingly good strategy game.” Yikes.

The Gears of War section ends with a trailer for Gears of War 5. Time appears to have been very kind to this one because, looking at the reviews on Metacritic, it seems like a lot of people thought Gears 5 was a good but not great game. Nothing special, but a good time to be had. Listening to people talk about it now they make it sounds like it tells an epic story that the team at Coalition have to go back to and finish. Even with the recent announcement of Gears of War: E Day, the first thing Gears fans asked was if the studio planned on making a Gears of War 6 because the story needed to be finished. And with that, I thought the show was over. Which was ironic because Gears of War: E Day was how Xbox ended their Summer Game Fest show, but then the show kept going. It was time for one more announcement.

Cyberpunk 2077. Talk about being too on the nose. What plays next is one of the greatest trailers I’ve ever seen. Beautiful visuals, mixed with hints of gameplay and world-building that you can’t believe is possible. Mostly because it wasn’t. As it would turn out, Cyberpunk 2077 was a game that needed more time in the oven than anyone was willing to admit. They showed this trailer in 2018, and the update for the game that got it as close to what it was supposed to be at launch wasn’t released until 2023. With everything that Microsoft has gone through over the last 6 years since this conference, ending on Cyberpunk couldn’t have been more fitting. Xbox and Cyberpunk 2077. Big promises that have never fully delivered on their potential to be great.