For many years I have been working hard on my scientific formula, Horse or Fish, that helps predict the winner of Game of The Year at the Game Awards. It’s also a formula that helps put a particular year in gaming in perspective. For instance, 2021 was a down year in gaming as all of the nominees for Game of the Year lacked both Horse and Fish. But other winners in the past have pointed directly to the formula: Last of Us Part 2 (horse), Elden Ring (horse), and Baldur’s Gate 3 (character creator which is equal to fish.)

So color me shocked when the 2024 Game of The Year winner’s name was called and Astro Bot was announced. Don’t misunderstand, I’m not here to tell anyone they’re wrong for loving Astro Bot but in a year where the category had not one but technically three nominees (Final Fantasy Rebirth, Elden Ring Erdtree, and Metaphor: ReFantazio) that fell into Horse or Fish and none of them won, I called for robbery. As a video game scientist, though, the question must be asked. Is this an outlier or the beginning of a new trend? Well, before we can discover that answer, allow me to present to you, my prediction for the 6 nominees for Game of the Year at the Game Awards.

1. Monster Hunter Wilds
2. Hades 2
3. Resident Evil 9
4. Whatever Nintendo is Cooking
5. Ghost of Yotei
6. Death Stranding 2: On The Beach

I know what you’re thinking, “Chris, there appears to be a game on your nominee list that isn’t real. Well, I’ve got news for you! Resident Evil 9 is happening! At some point, early in the year, PlayStation is going to have a Showcase and in that Showcase they’re going to announce Resident Evil 9 and at the end of that trailer it will say “Fall 2025.”

For those wondering where some potential big releases like GTA 6 and Fable are, I don’t think they’re coming out this year. Rockstar Games knows how much pressure they’re under with GTA 6 and I believe they’ll take as much time as they need to make sure the launch is as smooth as humanly possible. As for something like Fable, Xbox has yet to show the actual game off. Trust me, I want to be excited about this, but until I see more than a world-building trailer, I’m not getting my hopes up. With all of that said, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong. By all means, make 2025 one of the all-time great years in gaming.

As for the winner? Well, with Monster Hunter Wilds (Horse), Hades 2 (possibly Fish), Resident Evil 9 (probably no Horse or Fish), Nintendo Game (possibly Horse), Ghost of Yotei (Horse), and Death Stranding on The Beach (Horse) nearly every nominee features Horse or Fish so the answer is up in there air. With that said, out of the games I think will be nominated, my winner is Hades 2. Not only is Supergiant Games one of my favorite developers, but they are a studio that never misses: Bastion, Pyre, Transistor, and Hades. In fact, I would argue the only reason the first Hades didn’t take home the prize was that it was up for the award in arguably one of the greatest years in gaming, 2020. If not for a little game called Last of Us Part 2 (Horse), I think Supergiant would be looking to take home its second Game of The Year Award.